DOH: Measles-rubella surge possible due to low vaccination rate

The Department of Health (DOH) has issued a critical warning about a potential measles and rubella outbreak in Mindanao, citing dangerously low vaccination rates in the region. As of February 2026, approximately 520,645-520,646 children aged 5 and below remain unvaccinated in Mindanao following the conclusion of the "Ligtas Tigdas" supplemental immunization campaign. This falls significantly short of the 95% herd immunity threshold needed to prevent outbreaks, with only about 2.3 million children (82% of the 2.8 million target) vaccinated during the campaign that began on January 19, 2026.

The warning comes amid concerning vaccination gaps in several Mindanao regions, including Zamboanga Peninsula, Northern Mindanao, Soccsksargen, and the Bangsamoro Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao (BARMM). BARMM has been particularly affected, having experienced an ongoing measles outbreak declared in March 2024 that recorded 905 cases and 4 deaths by April 2024. Nationally, measles-rubella cases rose by 32% in 2025, with over 73% of affected individuals being unvaccinated and most cases occurring in children under age 5.

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DOH Secretary Teodoro Herbosa emphasized that unvaccinated children significantly heighten outbreak risks, especially in school settings where viruses can spread more easily among susceptible individuals. The department has identified that the Bangsamoro region has not attained herd immunity against measles and rubella, with only 50% vaccination coverage compared to the required 95% threshold. This regional vulnerability has made BARMM the epicenter of recent outbreaks.

The current situation follows a broader national trend where measles cases surged by nearly 300% from January to October 2023 compared to the same period in 2021. This increase has been attributed to COVID-19 pandemic disruptions that led to the suspension of immunization services and declining vaccination rates, leaving millions of children vulnerable to preventable diseases. The DOH continues routine immunizations at health centers with local government support and plans to expand the vaccination campaign to Luzon (targeting 5.6 million children) and Visayas (targeting 1.9 million children) by June 2026, with an overall national goal of vaccinating 11 million children.